2026 Lumber Market Outlook: Industry Insights from Kerrisdale Lumber

As 2026 begins, many in the construction and building materials industry are navigating a landscape that feels unusually loud, from shifting economic headlines to uncertainty in U.S. and global markets. At Kerrisdale Lumber, we believe that long-term success in this industry comes not from reacting to noise, but from staying grounded in fundamentals and planning with intention.

As our President, Lyle Perry, recently shared, this is a moment to adjust, not panic.

Vancouver’s Forecasted Lumber Market

Understanding the Current Lumber Market in British Columbia

The lumber supply environment across British Columbia continues to face real pressure. Mill closures and production curtailments have tightened available supply, creating underlying constraints even as pricing remains relatively soft today.

While demand has not yet fully rebounded, tightening supply means conditions could shift quickly once activity increases. For builders and contractors, this creates an important planning window — an opportunity to think ahead about material availability and reduce the risk of future disruptions as the market evolves.

Rather than reacting to short-term price movement, many in the industry are focusing on material security, lead times, and long-range planning.

Watching Demand Without Chasing Headlines

Across North America, U.S. housing starts remain a key signal for broader construction demand. Current data paints a mixed picture, with some indicators pointing to upside potential while others suggest continued caution in the near term.

At Kerrisdale Lumber, our approach is to stay anchored to industry fundamentals rather than headline-driven speculation. Many outlooks suggest that growth may begin slowly before building momentum later in 2026. With the upcoming CUSMA trade review scheduled for July, we also have a clear milestone on the calendar that will help inform planning decisions for the second half of the year.

The Vancouver Construction Market: Signs of Stabilization

Closer to home, the Vancouver real estate and construction market has experienced a noticeable adjustment over the past year. As interest rates begin to feel more manageable, buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines are starting to prepare for next steps.

There is a growing sense that property pricing has stabilized and that current levels are beginning to look reasonable for those considering building, renovating, or moving. Rather than signaling a prolonged downturn, the local market appears to be recalibrating — creating new opportunities for builders and homeowners alike.

Looking Ahead to 2026

As we move further into the year, our focus remains on what we do best: supporting our customers with reliable supply, practical insight, and steady partnership. There’s a healthy mix of realism and optimism within our team — planning for potential challenges while remaining genuinely encouraged by the conversations we’re having with builders and contractors across Vancouver.

This industry has always been built on grit, adaptability, and long-term thinking. Those qualities are as important now as they’ve ever been.

We’re grateful for the trust our customers place in us and look forward to working together to make 2026 a strong and successful year.