July 2026 Lumber Market Insights & Vancouver Industry Update
We are seeing a shift from the stabilization we talked about last month into a period of slow and steady upward momentum. Over the past three weeks, both lumber and plywood markets have continued to strengthen, suggesting that available supply is tightening relative to demand.
The Macro View: A Lagging Dip and Supply Dynamics
When we look to the South, the latest data presents an interesting puzzle. US housing starts for May fell by 15%, hitting their lowest levels since 2020. This drop is largely being driven by high borrowing costs and sticky 30-year mortgage rates, which have left buyers hesitant to move out of their current lower-rate loans.
However, it is crucial to remember that housing starts are a lagging indicator. With all of the production being scaled back so heavily, we may not need a massive surge in demand to push prices upward. The upcoming data from June will be telling as it reveals exactly what kind of new market equilibrium is at play.
Historically, a round of buying creates upward momentum, things stabilize, and PO books get put away as buyers resist chasing the market higher. Since we haven’t seen this type of sustained strengthening in quite some time, we will be watching closely to see if that pattern changes. Typically, heading into the summer brings downward pressure on prices as building slows down in the US due to extreme heat, and summer holidays naturally quiet down business activity.
The unpredictable element this time of year in Canada remains the wildfire season. If fires disrupt transportation routes or impact mill production capacity, it could quickly limit availability and apply upward pressure on pricing.
In our view, if any softening in price is going to materialize, it will take a few weeks to show up.
Local Market: Inventory Clearing and Client Sentiment
Closer to home, there is movement happening in the Metro Vancouver real estate ecosystem.
A focus locally right now is the federal government’s plan to purchase a substantial number of unsold condominiums to transition them into affordable housing. From a purely market-facing perspective, taking that volume of unsold supply off the market is bound to have a tangible impact on local inventory dynamics. The devil will be in the details here for sure…and the initial feedback from the development industry seems to be that details are complicated.
On the ground, client sentiment indicates that the market remains fiercely competitive. Internally, we have noticed a corresponding shift in how projects are being executed. Over the past couple of months, we have received a record number of requests for specialized crane deliveries, with trickier access to sites becoming the norm. Our fleet is uniquely equipped for these complex deliveries, allowing us to service these tight spaces safely and smoothly without disrupting the schedule.
Past & Upcoming Events: Continuing the Conversation
It was fantastic to see so many of you turn out for our Contractor Lunch and Mini Supplier Trade Show on the 11th!
Our vendors were incredibly grateful for the opportunity to spend meaningful, one-on-one time with the key decision-makers in our industry. We know how incredibly busy your workdays are, and we truly appreciate you taking the time to step away from the job site to connect with us.
Based on the conversations at the trade show, we are looking forward to digging deeper with many of you on a few specific products that debuted. We see an excellent operational fit and a strong business case for them on several upcoming local projects.
If you missed the June event, or if you are ready for the next round of industry catching-up, mark your calendars! We are already planning our next event for September and cannot wait to see you all there.
We’re wishing you and your families a great month ahead as we officially kick off summer!
Lyle Perry & the Team at Kerrisdale Lumber
