Lumber Market Insights - March 2026
As we head further into Q1, there are a few important developments worth addressing, particularly on the trade front, alongside some subtle but notable shifts in demand sentiment.
Trade Developments: More Pressure on Canadian Mills
The recent Supreme Court ruling’s ties to the long-running softwood lumber dispute have many watching closely to see how (or if) it meaningfully shifts Canada’s position.
From a Canadian mill perspective, however, there’s nothing to celebrate.
Canadian producers continue to face the longstanding 35% anti-dumping and countervailing duties stemming from the decades-old softwood lumber dispute. In addition, there is now the potential for an extra 15% measure to stack on top. While that additional 15% carries a 150-day limit, the broader concern is what follows. Even if it times out, there’s little confidence that trade pressure from the US won’t simply take another form.
When margins are squeezed further, curtailments and closures become more likely. We’ve already seen production decline across BC over the past year, and additional duties only increase the incentive to restrict supply rather than produce into a weak margin environment.
Demand Signals: Early Signs Worth Watching
On the demand side, January US housing starts came in higher than expected. One month does not make a trend, but it is worth noticing. The supply constraint has made the market prone to a sharp upswing if there is continued strength South of the border.
That said, locally, we’re watching how markets evolve. Recent reporting in the Lower Mainland suggests Vancouver’s multiplex segment is beginning to mature after the initial surge following zoning challenges, pointing to a market that is recalibrating rather than stalling outright.
It’s not smoking hot out there by any means, and we’re mindful that not every segment is feeling improvement equally, but overall sentiment does feel incrementally better than it did earlier this winter. Conversations are becoming more forward-looking.
Pricing Outlook: Measured, Not Aggressive
At this moment, we’re not aggressively bullish on lumber pricing in the near term. However, we are increasingly aware of the ingredients that could create upward pressure, like seasonal Spring inventory build, incremental improvement in US housing activity, ongoing Canadian mill curtailments, and additional trade-related cost pressure.
None of these individually guarantees a spike, but together, they can create a market that is more sensitive than it may appear at first glance.
As we’ve said before, lumber behaves less like a discretionary good and more like gasoline. When activity rises, supply cannot instantly respond, and that’s when this volatility can surface.
What This Means for You
For now, this feels like a transition period. We’re not calling for extreme moves, but we’re actively looking at ways to mitigate risk, both for our own business and for our customers, should conditions tighten faster than expected through the Spring.
Thoughtful planning, realistic timelines, and proactive conversations continue to matter, and our team is here to do that with you. As always, our goal is to help you stay prepared, informed, and flexible as conditions continue to evolve. We appreciate the trust you place in our team, and we look forward to navigating the Spring together.
Sincerely,
Lyle Perry
