Lumber Market Insights - September 2026

The big news since our August update is the recent escalation of trade tariffs on both sides of the border. We deliberately held off on publishing this report until this week to allow the official decision deadline to pass and see exactly how the Canadian counter-tariff response would take effect.

Both the new US tariffs on Canadian exports and Canada’s retaliatory measures directly impact the lumber and building supply landscape. Here is a look at what transpired over the past five weeks, where pricing stands, and how we are working to protect your project budgets.

The Macro View: Panic Purchasing & Market Equilibrium

If you look strictly at month-over-month average lumber pricing, you might miss the sharp peaks and valleys that defined the market over the last month. The core driver was an immediate wave of panic purchasing.

The Pre-Tariff Buying Surge: Following the US tariff announcement, American buyers rushed to secure as much Canadian lumber and plywood as possible, filling their warehouses before the duties came into force.

Disconnect from Fundamentals: Anytime demand spikes, whether driven by actual job-site consumption or fear of price increases, market prices move up. Plywood and dimensional lumber experienced robust price gains that were largely disconnected from underlying US construction demand.

Receding Spikes: As anticipated, because those panic purchases were not backed by strong end-user demand, prices could not sustain those elevated levels. The market has since receded from those peaks and is actively searching for a new equilibrium.

Shaking the Snowglobe: Up until now, 2026 had been characterized by a remarkably smooth, balanced price curve with more rolling hills than dramatic peaks and valleys. This tariff announcement effectively shook up the snowglobe. As the pieces fall into place, we expect to see continued market volatility over the next few months.

Tariffs & Logistics: Counter-Tariff Impacts & Specific Materials

Canada’s counter-tariff response is now in effect. For general lumber, the direct pricing impact in Canada will be relatively muted because the primary flow of trade moves South, not North. However, key product lines will feel the effect:

Engineered Wood (LVL): Laminated Veneer Lumber (LVL), a critical engineered wood product, is now subject to Canadian counter-tariffs from US based manufacturers

Plywood & OSB Alternatives: Certain specialty US-made plywood and OSB brands are impacted. Fortunately, ample Canadian-made alternatives are available in most cases. Additionally, during periods when the Canadian plywood market is stronger than the US, Vancouver buyers previously imported cost-effective material from Washington and Oregon. With the new tariffs, that strategy is no longer viable, tying the local Vancouver market much more closely to Canadian domestic plywood supply.

Steel & Hardware Inflation: Customs brokers and government officials are still ironing out the exact details of what steel products are covered, and industry groups are actively lobbying for exemptions. While it is too early to pinpoint exact building supply lines, we anticipate some minor cost inflation on hardware and secondary building items (typically outside of main forming, framing, and exterior finishing).

Note: We have an extensive details list from our customs broker regarding affected steel and hardware classifications. If you would like to review this data for your upcoming builds, reach out to our team and we will gladly share it with you.

Local Market: Navigating Uncertainty Together

The local Vancouver market continues to face headwinds, and added trade friction is certainly not welcome news. However, external disruptions are nothing new. At this point, since about 2020, builders and suppliers have constantly had to adapt to factors beyond their control.

Macro Fundamentals: A prolonged trade dispute is harmful to both economies. At the end of the day, long-term lumber pricing remains pinned to US housing starts and broader economic sentiment, neither of which are strengthened by tariff implementation.

Resilience in Vancouver: With this impact on our local economic cycle, we take comfort in knowing Vancouver’s market strength will return, it is simply a matter of timing. Local trades and builders continue to demonstrate remarkable adaptability and grit.

Our Commitment to Your Budgets: Since the announcements, our team has been working on supply strategies to buffer the impact on your business. We are here to sit down with you to review procurement schedules, discuss alternative product specs, and help protect your bottom line.

Looking Ahead

With September here, school is back in full swing and families across the Lower Mainland are adjusting to the new routine, including two young kids of my own that are heading back to class this week! 

While there are always mixed feelings as the summer season winds down, there is also a clear sense that everyone in the industry is ready to roll up their sleeves and sink their teeth into the fall season.

Our team is here to keep you informed as always, equip you with the right market insights and intelligence, and keep your sites running smoothly.

Sincerely,

Lyle Perry & the Team at Kerrisdale Lumber