Lumber Market Insights - August 2026
Prices across both lumber and plywood have been steadily creeping upward since our last update in July. Naturally, this has sparked renewed chatter about whether we have finally established a new, higher market floor. While hindsight will ultimately reveal where the market lands, a look under the hood shows some drivers behind the momentum.
The Macro View: Supply Restrictions vs. Summer Trends
Typically, late summer brings the familiar summer doldrums. As building activity slows across parts of the US and industry professionals head out on summer holidays, demand generally softens and pricing comes off slightly.
However, this summer is playing out a little bit differently so far:
Supply-Driven Growth: The recent price appreciation is strictly a supply-restricted phenomenon rather than a demand-driven surge. US housing starts are holding steady rather than surging, but extensive mill curtailments over the past year mean producers are carrying lean inventories.
Short-Term Coverage: Major lumber purchasers are buying primarily for short-term coverage rather than placing massive orders. This steady, incremental buying continues to support a gradual upward creep in pricing as long as overall volume holds.
YTD Price Stability: Looking at Year-To-Date data, 2026 has seen a much flatter, smoother pricing curve compared to the volatile swings of 2025, sitting right near the midpoint of last year's highs and lows.
While historical trends suggest prices could ease in Q3 and Q4, the tight supply baseline means we are not advising any big speculative “bets” on a sharp drop. Some summer softening may still take place, just not expecting anything major.
Tariffs & Logistics: Managing Supply Chain Friction
Two external factors are currently adding friction to the market flow:
Proposed US Tariffs: With discussions floating around potential new US tariffs on Canadian forest products set for August, we may see temporary, speculative early purchasing from US buyers eager to move lumber across the border beforehand. In the short term, this could temporarily spook pricing upward. However, if implemented, a tariff would ultimately keep more supply within the Canadian domestic market, creating downward pressure on local pricing.
Wildfire Transportation Disruptions: On the logistics side, regional wildfires are causing transit delays across shipping routes. While material is still moving, transit times are taking longer as carriers adjust routing. To insulate your projects from these disruptions, we are actively maintaining higher in-house inventory levels to prevent job site shortages.
Local Market: Entrepreneurial Resilience in Vancouver
Here in the Lower Mainland, local conditions continue to present a mixed picture. The backlog of condo inventory remains a headwind, with developers hesitant to take on holding costs or launch new projects until existing inventory moves and financing conditions ease.
However, a drive around the market shows a healthy amount of active construction underway. When we talk about the industry being "down," it is all relative to historical peaks. What stands out right now is the sheer resilience of local builders, trades, and developers. Rather than sitting back, businesses across the Lower Mainland are stepping up, sharpening their strategy, and finding creative ways to secure work.
Product Updates: Accoya & Innovation on the Radar
We are constantly evaluating new materials and partnerships to add value to your projects:
Accoya Accredited Supplier: We are proud to announce that Kerrisdale Lumber is now an accredited supplier of Accoya modified wood. Frequently specified by local architects and designers for high-performance exterior applications, Accoya offers outstanding durability and dimensional stability. If you have an upcoming project with Accoya in the specs, reach out to our team to discuss sourcing and options.
On Our Radar (Barrier Tech): We are currently looking into a new product line called Barrier Tech, a specialized mold and fire protection treatment designed to potentially reduce both course-of-construction and ongoing building insurance costs. Given local climate and building requirements, mold and fire mitigation are always top of mind. We are completing our evaluation of the logistics and application details
Looking Ahead
While seasonal shifts keep our industry on its toes, summer in Vancouver is a time to be cherished. Make sure to take time away from the site to enjoy the sun and spend quality time with family before the rain returns! It’s coming!
We appreciate your continued business and look forward to keeping your job sites running smoothly through the rest of the season.
Sincerely,
Lyle Perry & the Team at Kerrisdale Lumber
