November brings a clearer political landscape and renewed Canada–US trade discussions. While these developments offer cautious optimism, financing costs and weak housing markets continue to weigh on construction. Here’s what we’re watching for your upcoming projection.
The Macro View: Change & Confidence
Recent elections across BC, Vancouver, and the United States give businesses a clearer starting point for planning. In our view, greater clarity can support confidence, although stronger housing activity will take time. Markets do not like uncertainty, and the uncertainty today is far lower than it was in October.
Provincially & Municipally: BC’s new government has an opportunity to rebuild investor confidence and support forestry. In Vancouver, existing multiplex rule continuity provides welcome clarity for the missing middle residential projects. We’re watching how proposed permitting reforms and development requirements translate into policy.
US Politics & Trade: Democratic gains change the balance in Washington and could increase pressure over tariffs. Renewed Carney–Trump discussions are encouraging, but neither development guarantees immediate trade relief.
Interest Rates & Demand: Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5% in October, while the US Federal Reserve held rates steady. Financing costs remain a headwind for housing activity. Combined with cautious purchasing and the winter slowdown, these pressures support our softer near-term lumber outlook. The US housing market does not look too poised for any sort of rebound, and it will continue to be the major demand driver
Dimensional Lumber: The Divide Continues
October continued last month’s pattern: softer narrow dimensions, while wider products held firm.
2x4 and 2x6: Downward pressure is showing up in mill pricing, although movement varies by item.
2x8 and 2x10: Restricted production continues to support prices, with 2x10 strengthening through October despite weak demand. We expect broader market pressure to reach wider dimensions over time, but the timing remains uncertain.
Plywood: Seasonal Pressure Builds
Early-fall price strength has some momentum, but is showing some cracks. We expect downward pressure moving ahead as we approach the holidays in North America.
Tariff Watch: The US has removed an additional 50% tariff on certain Canadian plywood products, but Canadian counter-tariffs on US plywood remain. Those Canadian measures matter most locally: they restrict Washington and Oregon supply that can help moderate Lower Mainland prices when Canadian plywood rises.
The Local Market: Cautious Optimism
Competition remains intense, but builder conversations are becoming more encouraging. Some report substantial projects booked or nearing commitment for 2027.
We see early signs of stabilization, with potential improvement later next year. For now, confidence still needs to translate into committed work.
Project Alert: Simpson Strong-Wall Transition
Simpson Strong-Tie is replacing its Steel Strong-Wall® (SSW) line with the Strong-Wall® High-Strength Steel Shearwall (SSWH) system starting January 31, 2027.
Plan Before You Pour: Dimensions and anchorage requirements differ. Confirm product selection with your engineer before setting foundation anchors to avoid redesign, concrete rework, and delays.
Transition Planning: Availability of the outgoing SSW line will become dependent on remaining inventory throughout their transitionary period from February 1 to May 31, 2027. If you’re designing for construction in early 2027 or later, contact us now to confirm applicable deadlines, availability, and technical information before plans are finalized.
Looking Ahead
The near-term risk of a sharp commodity price increase appearing low, more project management focus can turn to things like schedule and efficiency. A drive to get the roof on, before prolonged wet weather sets in, is well timed!
Reach out to your Kerrisdale team to discuss materials and procurement for upcoming projects. We’ll keep you informed as market conditions change.
On November 11, we pause mid week to remember those who served and those who gave their lives protecting our values and country.
Sincerely,
Lyle Perry & the Team at Kerrisdale Lumber
